
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has quietly developed an escape plan to flee Tehran for Moscow with fewer than 20 trusted allies if nationwide protests spiral beyond his security forces’ control.
Story Snapshot
- Khamenei’s “Plan B” includes mapped escape routes and securing $95 billion in regime assets
- The 86-year-old leader draws inspiration from Assad’s December 2024 flight to Russia
- Intelligence sources report growing defection risks among security forces with family abroad
- Economic hardship fuels mounting protests across major Iranian cities including Qom
The Supreme Leader’s Moscow Blueprint
Intelligence reports reveal Khamenei’s contingency planning mirrors Bashar al-Assad’s successful escape to Russia just months earlier. The aging Supreme Leader has identified specific routes out of Tehran and designated his inner circle for the potential exodus. His son Mojtaba Khamenei tops the evacuation list, alongside fewer than two dozen family members and closest advisors.
Former Israeli intelligence officer Beni Sabti explains Russia represents Khamenei’s only viable refuge option. Putin’s willingness to harbor authoritarian allies, combined with cultural and political alignment, makes Moscow the logical destination. The relationship between Tehran and Moscow has deepened considerably, particularly following their cooperation in regional conflicts and shared opposition to Western influence.
Asset Protection Strategy Revealed
The escape plan extends beyond personal safety to encompass massive financial resources. Khamenei controls approximately $95 billion through various entities, including the powerful Setad organization. Intelligence sources indicate detailed preparations for moving these assets, ensuring the Supreme Leader maintains substantial resources regardless of the Islamic Republic’s fate.
This financial component distinguishes the current situation from routine protest coverage. The regime appears genuinely concerned about its survival, evidenced by the meticulous planning around both personnel and monetary assets. The scale of potential capital flight could severely impact Iran’s already struggling economy, creating additional pressure on the government’s ability to maintain control.
Security Forces Face Family Leverage
A critical vulnerability emerges from an unexpected source: the overseas families of key security personnel. Many Iranian officials, including National Security Council secretary Ali Larijani, have relatives living in the United States, Canada, Gulf states, and Dubai. This creates potential leverage points that could influence loyalty during critical moments.
The Revolutionary Guard Corps, Basij militia, regular police, and army units all report directly to Khamenei. However, their willingness to use lethal force against protesters becomes questionable when family members abroad face potential consequences. This dynamic represents a significant shift from previous protest cycles, where security forces maintained stronger cohesion and fewer external vulnerabilities.
Economic Pressure Mounts Nationwide
Current demonstrations stem from genuine economic hardship affecting millions of Iranians. Sanctions, inflation, and mismanagement have created widespread suffering that transcends political divisions. Protesters increasingly view the regime as illegitimate, not merely disagreeable, marking a fundamental shift in public sentiment that alarms government officials.
The protests span major cities and extend into religious centers like Qom, traditionally regime strongholds. This geographic spread suggests deeper systemic problems than previous unrest episodes. Intelligence assessments indicate growing concerns within government circles about their ability to maintain control through traditional suppression methods, particularly if economic conditions continue deteriorating.
Sources:
Ground News – Khamenei Prepared to Flee to Russia if Unrest Escalates
Ynet News – Khamenei Plans Moscow Escape
Jerusalem Post – Iran Supreme Leader Escape Plan
GB News – Iran Protests Supreme Leader Moscow Escape
EADaily – Ayatollah Khamenei Escape Plan
Iran International – Khamenei Escape Plan Report













