Volatile LA Race Upends Assumptions

Voter registration table with forms, pens, and informational materials — Photo: Joseph Sohm / Shutterstock

With 33% of Los Angeles voters still undecided, a new poll shows Nithya Raman leading Mayor Karen Bass 39% to 28%, putting City Hall on notice weeks before ballots drop.

Story Snapshot

UC Berkeley/Los Angeles Times poll finds Raman up 11 points over Bass.
One-third of likely voters remain undecided, a highly unusual share this late.
Survey ran Sept. 15–20 and sampled likely city voters, framing a volatile race.
Large undecided bloc could swing the outcome as campaigns shift to turnout.

Raman Leads, But Many Voters Have Not Chosen

UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, in partnership with the Los Angeles Times, reported Nithya Raman at 39% and Mayor Karen Bass at 28% among likely voters. The poll found 33% undecided as of Sept. 15–20, an unusually high level close to voting by mail. The 11-point gap gives Raman a clear edge in this snapshot. But the large share of undecided voters keeps both paths open as the final stretch begins and messages harden around safety, costs, and services.

The Los Angeles Times coverage highlighted the size of the undecided group and the timing ahead of the Nov. 3 election. USA Today echoed the toplines and the field dates, which help readers judge the poll’s recency and scope. FOX 11 Los Angeles and local outlets amplified the same figures, showing how quickly a single survey can shape the race narrative across the city’s media. Campaigns now face a short window to turn soft support into votes at scale.

Why One-Third Undecided Matters Now

Polling experts and past local surveys say many undecided voters this late is rare and risky for forecasts. The director of the Berkeley poll called the share “extraordinarily unusual” in comments reported by the Los Angeles Times, underscoring how outcomes can swing as late deciders move. Academic reviews add that people who do not name a choice are a key source of polling error, and standard margins may not capture that uncertainty fully. That means ground game and turnout could outweigh today’s lead.

Earlier 2026 polls also showed wide uncertainty in Los Angeles, with major shares undecided during the spring and early summer. Those snapshots moved as voter attention and media focus shifted. The new poll fits that pattern: a visible lead with many minds still open to persuasion. For residents, the key takeaway is simple. If you want change at City Hall, or you want to keep the current course, your vote is likely to matter more than usual because so many neighbors are still on the fence.

What The Numbers Signal About City Priorities

The results reflect a city still torn over basic services, safety, housing, and costs. Los Angeles voters have watched homelessness grow, housing stay expensive, and commutes drag. Many feel City Hall responds slowly to daily problems, while interest groups get quick answers. The poll’s large undecided bloc suggests many Angelenos want proof that someone will fix core systems, not just trade talking points. Voters appear open to change but cautious about new promises without clear plans and delivery.

Nationally, both the right and the left are weary of leaders who talk past real pain: high rents, street disorder, rising fees, and weak accountability. This Los Angeles race captures that mood. Raman’s lead shows demand for a different approach. Bass still has a path if she convinces late deciders she can deliver better results. Either way, the signal is the same: performance, not party labels, will decide many ballots. In a city this large, a few points moved by turnout can flip the finish.